PredictIt
PredictIt is a US market where users trade contracts on political events such as elections. How it works and who can use it.
US prediction market; not a gambling licence
This brand is not licensed in the markets we cover (or only in part of them), so it has no Wayfinder Score. If you play there, you do not get the protections a local licence brings: limits, self-exclusion and a regulator to complain to.
- Model
- Yes and no contracts priced from 1 to 99 cents
- Subject
- US and world politics
- Origin
- Project linked to Victoria University of Wellington
- Market
- United States
How it works
On PredictIt users buy and sell contracts on political questions, such as who will win an election. A contract pays one dollar if the prediction comes true and nothing if it does not, so the current price works as a rough probability.
The site charges a fee on profits and on withdrawals.
Where it stands
PredictIt began as an academic research project and spent years in dispute with the CFTC, the US derivatives regulator, over its right to operate. It is open to US residents and holds no gambling licence in the markets we cover (US, UK, Ireland, Spain, Germany, Portugal, South Africa and Ontario).
It is a market for event contracts, not a licensed bookmaker.
What to know
A prediction market can look like investing, but if you are wrong you lose what you paid for the contract. Prices can swing sharply on news.
We do not score prediction markets.