Polymarket
Polymarket lets users trade on the outcome of real-world events. It is blocked in several European countries. How it works and where it stands.
Restricted or unlicensed in most markets we cover
This brand is not licensed in the markets we cover (or only in part of them), so it has no Wayfinder Score. If you play there, you do not get the protections a local licence brings: limits, self-exclusion and a regulator to complain to.
- Founded
- 2020, New York
- How it works
- Yes/no event contracts priced from $0 to $1, settled in USDC
- Europe
- Ordered to block access in the Netherlands (February 2026) and France (July 2026)
- United States
- Regulated by the CFTC as a derivatives venue rather than as gambling
How it works
On Polymarket you buy shares in yes/no questions: will a candidate win, will a central bank cut rates? A share costs between zero and one dollar and pays one dollar if the event happens, so the price reads as a probability. Trading is done in USDC, a dollar-pegged stablecoin, on the Polygon blockchain.
The platform became a household name during the 2024 US presidential election, when its prices were quoted alongside the polls.
Where it stands legally
Regulators disagree about what a prediction market is. In the US it is treated as a derivatives product overseen by the CFTC; Polymarket settled with the agency in 2022 and later bought a licensed exchange to return to American users. In Europe, gambling regulators see it as unlicensed betting. The Dutch regulator imposed a penalty order in February 2026 and France's ANJ ordered a geo-block in July 2026.
It holds no gambling licence in the UK, Ireland, Spain, Germany, Portugal, South Africa or Ontario.
What to keep in mind
Outside the US framework there is no deposit limit, no self-exclusion scheme and nobody to appeal to if you disagree with how a market is resolved. Crypto gains and losses can also have tax consequences.
The prices are a useful signal of what traders expect. That is a reason to read them, not necessarily to trade them.