Kalshi
Kalshi is a US prediction market where users trade contracts on real-world events. How it is regulated, why states object and what to know.
US-regulated exchange, not a gambling licence
This brand is not licensed in the markets we cover (or only in part of them), so it has no Wayfinder Score. If you play there, you do not get the protections a local licence brings: limits, self-exclusion and a regulator to complain to.
- Founded
- 2018
- Regulator
- Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)
- How it works
- Yes or no event contracts priced from 1 to 99 cents
- Status
- Federally regulated exchange in the US; holds no state gambling licence
How it works
Kalshi lists contracts on questions with a yes or no answer: will inflation come in above a certain figure, will a team win tonight? Each contract settles at one dollar if the event happens and at nothing if it does not, so the price reads as a probability. Users trade with each other, and Kalshi earns a fee on each trade.
The company is registered with the CFTC as a designated contract market, the same category as a futures exchange.
The legal argument
Kalshi says federal commodities law governs its contracts and overrides state gambling law. Since it began listing sports contracts in 2025, several state gaming regulators have disagreed and sent cease-and-desist letters, and the question is being fought in the courts. The result is a product available in states where sports betting itself is not legal.
It holds no gambling licence in the markets we cover (US, UK, Ireland, Spain, Germany, Portugal, South Africa and Ontario).
What to know
A sports contract on Kalshi behaves much like a bet, but the protections differ. State-licensed sportsbooks must offer deposit limits, self-exclusion and problem gambling funding; a federally regulated exchange is not bound by those state rules. The minimum age is 18, lower than the 21 that most states set for betting.
We do not score prediction markets.